5 Month Update

I know you people would be thinking that 9th Dec is gone and I would have forgotten (typical of the Apathy phase) ! No such luck J Comparing today’s nifty to 9th Nov nifty, there is hardly any change. The month of Nov again bounced back from the lows of 8K sensex. Can the markets go back again to 7900 levels, sure it can but I doubt it. It’s going to be a slow recovery but I would buy good companies on any day there is a 4-5% drop in the sensex. There is not much to say other than BUY but slow and steady and willing to take a hit of 15-20% on the downside BUT almost 40-50% upside in the next 12-13 months ! If you are sitting on a net loss of less than 30% on your portfolio you are doing pretty good. If your loss is more you keep the faith and keep putting in small amounts else it might be difficult to recover the loss!

4 Month Update

The Sensex recovered almost 35% from the lows of 7900 last month ! There might be one sharp downward rally and then the “Apathy” phase of 2-3 months will come in force.
Markets will consolidate and the start the gradual process of recovery. Sensex might remain for quite some time in 10-12K range ( till elections I think) but watching the sensex is like missing the woods for the trees.

Individual stocks will rally 30-35% in the next 2-3 months. If you had bought Bank of India ( and quite a few others) on the Monday of Diwali week you would be sitting on a cool 35% profit !! Trick is to forget the sensex and look for value. Anyone willing to wait 2-3 yrs can easily get returns of 80-100% plus ( tax free) , which no FD , FMP , MF or Real Estate can give !

my sample stocks are still trailing the nifty by 6-7% !