4 Month Update

The Sensex recovered almost 35% from the lows of 7900 last month ! There might be one sharp downward rally and then the “Apathy” phase of 2-3 months will come in force.
Markets will consolidate and the start the gradual process of recovery. Sensex might remain for quite some time in 10-12K range ( till elections I think) but watching the sensex is like missing the woods for the trees.

Individual stocks will rally 30-35% in the next 2-3 months. If you had bought Bank of India ( and quite a few others) on the Monday of Diwali week you would be sitting on a cool 35% profit !! Trick is to forget the sensex and look for value. Anyone willing to wait 2-3 yrs can easily get returns of 80-100% plus ( tax free) , which no FD , FMP , MF or Real Estate can give !

my sample stocks are still trailing the nifty by 6-7% !

Interim Update

Be thankful!!

Why?

Well in 1 short year you will see all the last phase of a bull market and a part of the bear market!

Jan – Euphoria
Feb – Mar – Denial
April – Aug – Fear and Concern
Sept – Oct – Capitulation
Nov – Dec – Apathy

The apathy phase may last long or may not. This is the best phase to buy. The start of next bull market !

All markets follow the same phases; can only be seen in hindsight J as they say hindsight view is always 6/6 J

Cycles are important to know and remember. In the real estate cycle ( in Mumbai at least ) we are still in the denial phase, the start of a bear market J

Check the articles below (of different dates)

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&category=Market%20Commentary&newsletterid=1348&menugroup=Home

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm/act/newsletter.cfm/category/market%20commentary/menuitemid/null/MenuGroup/home/NewsLetterID/1389/startrow/11.htm

I will continue to send updates till you are sick of my updates J

So check my update below, I am still playing catch up with the index! Note these stocks are just some decent ones some outright bad ones, not the best that I know off :)