Interim Update

I just could not hold back , ignore the market moves and keep the moves of my value picks secret! I will not give any gyan(my old blogs are there for that), just state facts.

My Value picks returns - 90% (positive)
nifty in the same period - 60% (positive)

My General stocks - 6% (negative)
NAV change of a popular MF - 4% (negative)
Nifty in the same period - 4% (positive)

Please see sheet below for details.

10 Month Update

Surprised by the 40-45% rally from the bottom ? Don’t tell me you believed that it would stick around at 8K Sensex levels for a long time. I believe that the Sensex fair value to be around 12K to 13K and it could stay in and around these levels for a long time. As this rally happened very fast lot of people have been left out , even the so called “professional” money managers. The markets are like a pendulum going from one extreme to the other. Once there is a small 10-15% correction takes place I believe that all these “professional” will pump in money and take the sensex above its fair value ( to its over valued extreme) ! so if you have invested money before Mar and are not in for the long haul, it would be fair point to book some of the profits at this extreme. 50-60% profits in such economic conditions are great returns. If you are long term investor like me then hold on for another 6 to 12 months for real wealth creation. Real wealth creation happens when you are able to sell X times your buying price. Another point to note is that in case you are holding on to dividend paying companies, there is no way you should sell before July - August. May – August dividend is paid out for lot of companies. In some good companies, the dividend yield is as high as 10-11%. This yield is higher than deposit rates and this return is in addition to the capital appreciation and people say stock markets are a risky business!

My value picks were 50% plus in the green last week before people started booking profits. They are still doing pretty well and beating the index by 9%. The other companies in the display below are also good only reason they are not doing great is that they were picked up at high valuations. Investing is all about buying Re1 for 75paisa ! If you are able to pick this Re 1 at 60-65 paisa then you also have built in a margin of safety.