5 Month Update

I know you people would be thinking that 9th Dec is gone and I would have forgotten (typical of the Apathy phase) ! No such luck J Comparing today’s nifty to 9th Nov nifty, there is hardly any change. The month of Nov again bounced back from the lows of 8K sensex. Can the markets go back again to 7900 levels, sure it can but I doubt it. It’s going to be a slow recovery but I would buy good companies on any day there is a 4-5% drop in the sensex. There is not much to say other than BUY but slow and steady and willing to take a hit of 15-20% on the downside BUT almost 40-50% upside in the next 12-13 months ! If you are sitting on a net loss of less than 30% on your portfolio you are doing pretty good. If your loss is more you keep the faith and keep putting in small amounts else it might be difficult to recover the loss!

4 Month Update

The Sensex recovered almost 35% from the lows of 7900 last month ! There might be one sharp downward rally and then the “Apathy” phase of 2-3 months will come in force.
Markets will consolidate and the start the gradual process of recovery. Sensex might remain for quite some time in 10-12K range ( till elections I think) but watching the sensex is like missing the woods for the trees.

Individual stocks will rally 30-35% in the next 2-3 months. If you had bought Bank of India ( and quite a few others) on the Monday of Diwali week you would be sitting on a cool 35% profit !! Trick is to forget the sensex and look for value. Anyone willing to wait 2-3 yrs can easily get returns of 80-100% plus ( tax free) , which no FD , FMP , MF or Real Estate can give !

my sample stocks are still trailing the nifty by 6-7% !

Interim Update

Be thankful!!

Why?

Well in 1 short year you will see all the last phase of a bull market and a part of the bear market!

Jan – Euphoria
Feb – Mar – Denial
April – Aug – Fear and Concern
Sept – Oct – Capitulation
Nov – Dec – Apathy

The apathy phase may last long or may not. This is the best phase to buy. The start of next bull market !

All markets follow the same phases; can only be seen in hindsight J as they say hindsight view is always 6/6 J

Cycles are important to know and remember. In the real estate cycle ( in Mumbai at least ) we are still in the denial phase, the start of a bear market J

Check the articles below (of different dates)

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&category=Market%20Commentary&newsletterid=1348&menugroup=Home

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm/act/newsletter.cfm/category/market%20commentary/menuitemid/null/MenuGroup/home/NewsLetterID/1389/startrow/11.htm

I will continue to send updates till you are sick of my updates J

So check my update below, I am still playing catch up with the index! Note these stocks are just some decent ones some outright bad ones, not the best that I know off :)

3 Month Update

Massive wealth destruction in the last month, with no place to hide J under performing nifty by 10% !!

Companies like Allahabad bank, NTPC and Bharti airtel ( not in list) being the only hiding places !!

2 Month Update

I am underperforming the index but then it should outperform later J Metals and exports pulling average down !!

1 Month Update

Start of a journey

As I have lots of time before i join my new job I have created a shadow portfolio today of a notional amount of rupees 1 crore.
It’s a long term portfolio and there will be no changing of stocks before 12 months and no profit booking also.
I kept a limit to the 15 stocks as there are too many to choose from!

Check them out today. I will update last 2 columns every month.Ignore this in case not interested I’m just doing some speculative Time Pass!